Counterfactual reasoning is pivotal in human cognition and especially important for providing explanations and making decisions. While Judea Pearl's influential approach is theoretically elegant, its generation of a counterfactual scenario often requires too much deviation from the observed scenarios to be feasible, as we show using simple examples. To mitigate this difficulty, we propose a framework of natural counterfactuals and a method for generating counterfactuals that are more feasible with respect to the actual data distribution. Our methodology incorporates a certain amount of backtracking when needed, allowing changes in causally preceding variables to minimize deviations from realistic scenarios. Specifically, we introduce a novel optimization framework that permits but also controls the extent of backtracking with a "naturalness'' criterion.

Counterfactual reasoning is pivotal in human cognition and especially important for providing explanations and making decisions. While Judea Pearl's influential approach is theoretically elegant, its generation of a counterfactual scenario often requires interventions that are too detached from the real scenarios to be feasible. In response, we propose a framework of natural counterfactuals and a method for generating counterfactuals that are natural with respect to the actual world's data distribution. Our methodology refines counterfactual reasoning, allowing changes in causally preceding variables to minimize deviations from realistic scenarios. To generate natural counterfactuals, we introduce an innovative optimization framework that permits but controls the extent of backtracking with a naturalness criterion. Empirical experiments indicate the effectiveness of our method.